Facts Versus Guesses
Arvind Singh
| 21-12-2025
· News team
Hey Lykkers. Let's talk about those frustrating money fights at work. You know the ones—where two people are sure they're right about the budget, but they're saying completely different things.
Voices get tense, the meeting stalls, and everyone leaves annoyed.
What if you could fix this in just five minutes? There's a simple whiteboard trick that works like magic. Let's break it down.

Why Money Fights Happen

Most arguments about money aren't really about numbers. They're about invisible guesses. For example:
Fact: "We spent $1,000 on ads last month."
Hidden Guess: "I guess that if we spend $2,000 next month, we'll get twice the sales."
The fight starts when people argue about the sales number, but never talk about the guess behind it. They're having two different conversations.

The Simple Fix: The Two-Column Rule

Here’s how to stop the argument in its tracks.
1. Draw the Line.
When the debate starts going in circles, walk to a whiteboard (or open a shared doc). Draw a line down the middle.
Left Side: Label it "WHAT WE KNOW."
Right Side: Label it "WHAT WE GUESS."
2. Fill It Out Together.
Ask your team to help fill the board. The rules are simple:
KNOW: Only things that are 100% true right now or were true in the past. Real data from reports, signed contracts, yesterday's bank balance.
GUESS: Everything else. Predictions, hopes, estimates about tomorrow.
Example:
KNOW: "Our software costs $99/month."
GUESS: "A new feature will get 100 new sign-ups."
This simple act changes everything. Now, you're not fighting each other. You're both looking at the board, sorting information as a team. This method is supported by decision science. Research shows that premortems reduce teams’ overconfidence significantly more than other critiquing and risk‑analysis methods do — McKinsey article “Premortems: Being smart at the start."

The Magic Question

Once the "GUESS" column has a few items, point to it and ask this one question:
-"Which guess is the most dangerous to get wrong?"
Then ask:
-"What's the smallest, cheapest test we can do to see if it's true?"
Instead of arguing whether the new feature will get 100 sign-ups, you agree to run a small, $50 ad test to check interest. You stop debating and start testing. This approach is core to the Lean Startup methodology.

Why This Works So Well

This trick works for three reasons:
1. It's Not Personal: You're arguing with the board, not your coworker.
2. It Shows the Real Problem: You quickly see if you're fighting over a lack of facts.
3. It Leads to Action: The meeting ends with a plan to find answers, not just keep arguing.

Your New Meeting Rule

So, Lykkers, here's your new rule: No more money arguments without a whiteboard.
The next time a budget discussion gets heated, be the calm person who says, "Let's map this out. What do we know for sure, and what are we guessing?"
You'll save time, save relationships, and make smarter decisions with less stress. Try it in your very next meeting. All you need is a pen.